Monte Carlo for traders: why a single backtest isn't enough

A backtest shows you exactly one sequence of trades: the one that happened. But the order of your wins and losses could have been different, and with it, your maximum drawdown and your ability to survive a bad streak.

Monte Carlo simulation reshuffles and resamples those trades thousands of times to show you the range of possible outcomes, not just the one you got. It tells you how likely a drawdown is to knock you out, something a single backtest never reveals.

In Cortex, Monte Carlo is part of the validation flow alongside walk-forward. Trading with evidence means knowing not just the average result, but the reasonable worst case.